Unlocking the Real Estate Market’s Potential: The Central Bank’s Strategic Credit Growth Target

    The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has set an ambitious target of achieving a 16% credit growth by 2025, which translates to an infusion of approximately 2.5 million billion Vietnamese Dong into the country's economy. This bold initiative, as per the insights of the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), holds the potential to catalyze the revival of the nation's real estate sector.

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    In a move that aligns with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s directives, 24 commercial banks lowered deposit interest rates by 0.1-2%, marking the most significant adjustment seen this year. This action, coupled with tailored loan packages introduced by banks specifically for young homebuyers, hints at a potential shift in funds towards the real estate sector.

    According to experts, a substantial portion of this influx of capital is expected to find its way into lucrative investment avenues, particularly real estate and securities. This prediction is further supported by the current volatile nature of the gold market.

    Dr. Can Van Luc, an economist at BIDV, attributed the real estate market’s resurgence to Vietnam’s successful economic growth initiatives for 2024-2025, coupled with managed inflation and low-interest rates. He also foresees institutional reforms, enhanced planning, and increased public investment as catalysts for further market growth. The financial strain on property developers has eased, granting them improved access to capital.

    An urban complex in Hanoi’s Hoang Mai district showcases the city’s development. (Photo: VNA)

    Nguyen Quoc Anh, from the popular real estate listing site batdongsan.vn, noted a notable shift in buyer and investor sentiment since late 2023. There is now a growing number of individuals prepared to enter the property market, particularly those interested in land plots.

    The Institute of Construction Economics, under the Ministry of Construction, forecasts a more dynamic market in 2025, with housing and land prices projected to increase by 8-10%. They also highlight how preferential home loan rates and reduced costs for social housing credit packages will positively impact the real estate market by encouraging more bank lending.

    Given these positive indicators, VARS counsels real estate companies to focus on products that cater to market demand, especially in the realm of social and mid-range housing. This strategy aligns with the approach taken by Tran Anh Group’s Chairman, Tran Duc Vinh, who is concentrating on social housing projects to navigate past development challenges. By doing so, companies can enhance loan accessibility and boost sales.

    Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association, points out that while commercial housing promises higher profit margins, social housing projects offer the advantage of expedited legal processes, allowing for quicker capital recovery.

    For individual investors, VARS recommends a cautious approach, especially when leveraging investments. They advise against getting caught up in market hype and instead suggest focusing on areas with genuine development potential, robust infrastructure, and strong long-term demand. The real estate market in 2025 presents significant recovery opportunities, but success hinges on thorough preparation and adaptable strategies.

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