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The potential establishment of a Chinese military base in Gwadar, with Pakistan’s reported consent, underscores the deepening strategic ties between Islamabad and Beijing. This development has significant implications for the geopolitical landscape of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and beyond.
The proposed base, situated in the strategic port city of Gwadar, serves as a critical link in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its flagship project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While it offers China an expanded strategic presence in the IOR, it comes at the cost of restricting the freedom of movement and access to maritime resources for locals, particularly fishermen in the region.
Over the years, Pakistan has been a key recipient of Chinese investments, with CPEC at the forefront. However, the results have fallen short of expectations, leaving Pakistan burdened with debt. As of 2022, Pakistan’s Chinese debt stood at a staggering USD 26.6 billion, the highest among all nations. This has pushed Pakistan’s military-backed government to seek debt renegotiation with China, potentially offering Beijing a military base in Gwadar as a concession.
The Gwadar Port holds strategic importance for China as it provides a direct land route to the West, reducing reliance on the South China Sea shipping lanes. In exchange for the base, Pakistan has requested enhanced economic and military support from China, anticipating backlash from Washington over this deal. The U.S. has already expressed concerns about China’s motives behind CPEC and its presence in Balochistan, given its proximity to the Arabian Sea.
China’s ‘debt-trap’ strategy, evident in its engagements with other underdeveloped nations, has ensnared Pakistan. Islamabad’s willingness to compromise territorial sovereignty, as seen in the 1963 China-Pakistan Border Agreement, raises alarms. Despite civil unrest and an ongoing Baloch insurgency, Pakistan seems prepared to surrender Gwadar to serve its self-interests.
Fears of mass protests and violent uprisings in Balochistan loom large as an official announcement of the Chinese military base at Gwadar Port could spark outrage. This may provide further justification for human rights abuses by the Pakistani military. Under pressure from Beijing, Pakistan launched a new military campaign, Azm-e-Istehkam, on June 22, indicating a potential intensification of counterterrorism operations to silence opposition to the proposed Chinese deployment.
Discussions between China and Pakistan regarding Gwadar have been ongoing in a forum known as the “Consultation on Strategic Defence and Security Cooperation” or the “2+2 dialogue.” A 2023 document confirms Pakistan’s commitment to the strategic utilization of Gwadar, with the highest-level assurances provided to their Chinese counterparts. Pakistani officials have been instructed to acknowledge the port’s significance in China’s global military strategy and ensure the fulfillment of joint strategic goals.
The U.S. has long been concerned about China’s ambitions for Gwadar. A military base at this location would enhance China’s power projection capabilities beyond its immediate region. According to a 2020 report by the U.S. Naval War College, Gwadar could become a “strategic strongpoint” for China, granting it access to the Persian Gulf. This development underscores China’s efforts to establish a global network of military and naval bases, leveraging its economic influence over nations like Pakistan.
Pakistan’s compromised territorial sovereignty to China is a consequence of its political instability and economic crisis. The establishment of a Chinese military base in Gwadar severely restricts locals’ access to maritime resources and freedom of movement, disrupting their livelihoods. Moreover, the increasing Chinese military presence in the region threatens to destabilize peace and security in the IOR, exacerbating tensions between Beijing and Washington.
